ChatGPT-4-Turbo is outperforming human financial analysts now. ChatGPT-4o beats Gemini & Claude.AI to provide a forecast for AI smartphone. Thanks to its research capability. Whereas, Gemini & Claude.AI did not provide useful guesses even.
Hire a good one, while you can
On May 21 2024, Chicago Booth School of Business posted a research paper: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models. It concludes LLMs will take a central role in financial analysis, as:
A) GPT4 outperforms human financial analysts to predict earnings changes only base on standardized & anonymous financial statements.
B) GPT’s prediction accuracy is on par with the performance of a narrowly trained state-of-the-art ML model.
A toy question - ChatGPT is wining for now
For a quick personal reality check, I asked ChatGPT-4o, Gemini & Claude.AI to forecast AI smartphone smartphone in 2025. Which I can not find an answer by search currently. And then, I also followed up to ask their best guesses.
Canalys forecasts AI-capable PCs will make up 40% of global PC shipments in 2025, about 150M.
Microsoft: 50M will be Copilot+ PCs.
Canalys forecasts 1.2B smartphone shipped in 2024.
Q1: How many Gemini smartphones will be shipped in 2025?Q2: just give me the best guess
The Results
ChatGPT beats Gemini & Claude.AI. It’ll be my choice of AI Co-Analysts by “cheating” with the 400M projection from Canalys. ChatGPT estimates it’s between 30–35% of the market share at 1.2B, by interpolating on Canalys’ forecast: AI-capable smartphone share to reach 45% in 2027. Which is a bit different from Canalys’ chart at 23%. The full Q&A transcripts are attached for your own judgement.
ChatGPT-4o
Canalys has forecasted that in 2025, 40% of global PC shipments will be AI-capable, amounting to approximately 150 million units, with 50 million of those being Microsoft Copilot+ PCs (Canalys). For smartphones, Canalys predicts that 1.2 billion units will be shipped in 2024 (Canalys).
Regarding Gemini smartphones, which are part of the broader AI-capable smartphone category that includes models capable of running on-device AI tasks, Canalys projects that 400 million AI-capable smartphones will be shipped in 2025. This includes models equipped with advanced AI capabilities like Google’s Gemini and Samsung’s Gauss (Canalys) (Canalys).
ChatGPT-4o’s best guess
Based on the available information, it is projected that approximately 400 million AI-capable smartphones will be shipped in 2025. This includes models like Google’s Gemini smartphones, which are part of the broader category of AI-capable devices (Canalys) (Canalys).
Explaining the 400M projection
As I can not find the direct projection from the Canalys links. I asked GPT:
Q3: where do you get the projection of 400 million AI-capable smartphones in 2025?
GPT Searched 3 sites
The projection that around 400 million AI-capable smartphones will be shipped in 2025 is derived from Canalys’ analysis and forecasts regarding the growth of AI integration in mobile devices. According to Canalys, AI-capable smartphones, defined by their ability to run advanced AI models and tasks on-device, are expected to see significant growth in the coming years.
Here’s a step-by-step explanation of how this projection is made:
- Current Market Data: In 2024, approximately 5% of the 1.2 billion smartphones shipped globally are expected to be AI-capable, amounting to about 60 million units (Canalys) (Canalys).
- Growth Trends: Canalys forecasts that by 2027, around 45% of all smartphones shipped will be AI-capable (Canalys). This represents a substantial increase from the 5% in 2024.
- Annual Growth Rate: Given the rapid integration of AI technologies and increasing consumer demand for smarter devices, the growth rate of AI-capable smartphones is expected to accelerate significantly.
- Interim Projections: By interpolating between the known figures for 2024 and the projected figures for 2027, we can estimate that the penetration of AI-capable smartphones will reach around 30–35% of the market by 2025. Applying this percentage to the forecasted total smartphone shipments in 2025 (which can be assumed to be similar to or slightly higher than the 2024 figure of 1.2 billion), we estimate approximately 400 million AI-capable smartphones in 2025.
This estimation method combines current shipment data, growth trends, and future forecasts provided by industry analysis to arrive at a reasonable projection for the number of AI-capable smartphones that will be shipped in 2025.
Gemini
There is no data available on the number of Gemini smartphones shipped in 2025. The information about PC shipments, Copilot+ PCs and total smartphone shipments in 2024 is not relevant to Gemini smartphones.
Gemini’s best guess
It’s difficult to make an accurate guess about Gemini smartphones without more information. However, here’s a breakdown to help you form your own best guess:
Market Presence:
- Is Gemini a new brand or an established one? New brands typically start with lower shipment numbers.
- Does Gemini target a specific niche market (e.g., gaming phones) or a broader audience? Niche markets tend to have smaller shipment volumes.
Sales Strategy:
- Does Gemini focus on online sales or rely on carrier partnerships? Online sales might suggest lower volumes compared to major brands with carrier deals.
Here are some ranges for a guess based on typical smartphone shipment volumes:
- Low Range (100,000–1 Million): This might be a possibility for a new brand or one targeting a niche market.
- Mid Range (1 Million — 10 Million): This is more likely for an established brand with a broader market reach.
Important Note: These are just ranges, and the actual number could be much higher or lower depending on the factors mentioned above.
Claude.AI
To answer your question about how many Gemini smartphones will be shipped in 2025, I would need some additional information that was not provided in the prompt.
The prompt gives forecasts and numbers related to AI-capable PCs, Copilot+ PCs from Microsoft, and overall global smartphone shipments for 2024. However, it does not mention any specifics about “Gemini smartphones” or provide a forecast for those.
Without having any context or projections specifically regarding Gemini smartphones, I do not have enough information to estimate how many might ship in 2025. If you are able to provide some additional details or forecasts related to Gemini smartphones specifically, I would be happy to try to analyze that data to give you a reasonable estimate. But based solely on the information provided, I do not have a way to calculate or forecast Gemini smartphone shipment numbers for 2025.
Claude.AI’s best guess
Without any specific data or context about “Gemini smartphones”, it’s very difficult to make an informed guess about 2025 shipment numbers. However, to provide my best rough estimate:
The prompt states Canalys forecasts 1.2 billion total smartphone shipments globally in 2024.
If we assume Gemini is a new smartphone brand/model being launched in 2024 or 2025, new models typically start with a small market share and ramp up over time as they gain traction (if successful).
A reasonable ballpark guess might be that Gemini could capture around 1–3% global market share in their first year or two, if they manage to roll out internationally and the product resonates with consumers.
At 1% of 1.2 billion total units, that would be around 12 million Gemini smartphones shipped in 2025.
At 3% market share, it could be around 36 million units.
So purely as an educated guess without any specific data on Gemini, I would very roughly estimate they could potentially ship somewhere in the range of 12–36 million smartphone units globally in 2025 if it is a new model/brand launch that year.
But that is just hypothetical speculation. Actual shipment numbers could vary drastically depending on the company’s go-to-market strategy, pricing, product execution and many other factors. Please let me know if you have any other specifics that could help improve the accuracy of these very rough estimates.
