One Intel is a junk stock according the market. But two “Intel Inside” may be the hidden gems for Abundant Intelligence. To make the US win big, there should be a new AI chip IP powerhouse as Intel + AMD fueling by x86, and chips Made in America by a bigger & better by Intel + TSMC venture.
On December 2, 2024, Intel announced the retirement of CEO Pat Gelsinger, effective December 1st. In 2021, I had high hopes that the “Return of the King” could make “Intel Inside 2.0” great again when he took the job. This was because he understands and cares deeply about Intel’s products and services, rather than solely focusing on Return on Investment (ROI). Prior to his tenure, Intel had become complacent, excessively milking its CPU cash cow for too long. Too bad, I was wrong. 😅
Too Little, Too Late
To be fair, I suggested in 2021 that “2 Intels are better than 1” by unbundling its chip manufacturing from the design division. This would allow both entities to better focus and compete effectively. Gelsinger attempted to do this to some extent, creating an Internal Foundry Model and securing a substantial $100 billion in US government support. Good jobs as a CEO, but obviously not enough to turn Intel around. A key lesson from Gelsinger’s short tenure: even his IDM 2.0, a $20B big bet was too little, too late. So Who should be the next CEOs to turn Intel around? How can they put on better games for the next decade or two?
AI, AI, AI
Time is running out for Intel because Intel already missed 2 big waves: mobile and GenAI. Their progress has been stagnant over the past four years, while the Software 2.0 paradigm shift is accelerating. To regain its former glory, new leadership must embrace a visionary approach to the next big things. How does Intel Inside 3.0 look like for “Abundant Intelligence”? How to achieve that? Now here are my 2 crazy ideas because Intel has been in the emergency room for too long.
1. x86 Asset-Light Complete
How to push Intel not only to achieve above & beyond? But also, turn X86’s Beginning Of The End around? In October 2024, Intel, AMD, and others formed the x86 Ecosystem Advisory Group to accelerate innovation for developers and customers. It may extend the lifespan of x86. But the chance can be even better with a joint venture. Because the structure is more concrete and focused to reinvent x86-ish.
Return of the King Actual
While NVIDIA dominates GPU intellectual property (IP), ARM and RISC-V have been eating x86’s lunch for a long time. If the US aims to win big in the chip IP war completely, reinventing x86 is crucial. But it won’t be easy.
Intel’s CPU design and business should merge with AMD to create a more robust x86 ecosystem, integrating GPUs and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) not only for AI servers but also for AI edges and personal computing devices. The board should save time & effort to look for a new CEO for “Intel#1”. Instead, they should convince AMD CEO Lisa Su to take this bigger challenge. Which could take her career to a new high. Su has successfully executed the asset-light strategy, making AMD great again. She may be the only one not only save Intel#1, but also make AMD & x86 legacy bigger and longer.
2. Chips Made in America 2.0
No need to find a new CEO for the “Intel#2” neither. Intel’s chip manufacturing business should form a joint venture with TSMC to produce chips for both Intel and AMD. This is the only viable path to ensure the continued production of cutting-edge chips in the US. It’s ok for The Big Brother’s Hand on Chips. But please do it wisely. So, the tax we paid can actually create more than it pays for.
