The Last Needle?
“What goes up must come down”, the bubble is going to burst, only soon or later. Don’t ask me when & go to find your own crystal ball 🔮. But, the sign seems clear as a smart leader offering a sharp needle. Even some economists argue “deficit countries hold an advantage over those with trade surpluses”. Yep, if one cares about the short term only, and believes the opponents won’t react with a “smart” move either. e.g. Big U.S. companies have $158 billion at stake in the China trade war. Do the math. It’ll not even be a zero-sum game. It is a “no-win” one.
Why should I care, you ask. Besides being aware of significant macro environment changes tipping the finical market trend, it will impact the way of life for all & more importantly the next-gen will taking the hits most. Because international trade is one of a few great “innovations” driving civilization forward faster.
The Funder Movie
Besides the heavy stuff, allow me to suggest an entertainment for funders: The Founder. Spoiler alert: to talk about a few inspirations, I need to reveal some scenes to you. Stop reading while you can 😉. Joke aside, I’ll list a few points I like. So, you can still enjoy the storytelling in the movie.
Take 1: The Vision
The pattern is pretty much the same: in most successful business stories, even for a high-tech big-shot such as Google. It typically starts with founders eager to solve problems. They care dearly, but most companies are too big to neglect it. They glimpse into a future with their insights while most only see impractical gaging by the back mirror. As new & foolish, they challenge the status quo to create their own new game, instead of going into the giant’s battlefield. In the movie, Ray spotted McDonald’s innovations of a walk-up bugger restaurant & persistently to +1 more thing: franchising.
BTW, you don’t need to innovate from the thin air. Mixing a few ingredients right is a great heuristic. Past failures are a good source of ideas especially when you can spot the structural changes in the environment early.
Take 2: Business Model Innovation
Ray soon hit the wall. He was not even the first one trying franchising & failed miserably. It won’t work by just applying the existing “best practices” & working with “rich kids” who have too many choices. Ray eventually found his way to work with humble & hungry people. They are just very hungry. This is not even a new thing in general, but it’s human nature. If one is not motivated nor committed, it’ll never work for a new venture. Sufficient resources and good starting points are all secondarily. Right attitudes & hardworking are a must. Good to have others too, but most of them are just good bonuses.
Take 3: Pivoting
I love the scene: “You are not in a burger business. You are in a real estate business”. Similarly: Google is not in the search business. Google is in an online digital ads business.
As Ray successfully scaled the business, that granted him the power he did not know. It’s pretty much how startups work in Silicon Valley. Step one grows like crazy at all costs. So, you will be in a good position to figure out monetization later.
When you consider that, the recent Facebook obsession with growth should be no surprise: “Maybe someone dies in a terrorist attack… The ugly truth is that we believe in connecting people so deeply that anything that allows us to connect more people more often is de facto good.” But dear F, you are better than this.
Bonus: Building A Value Brand
Every valuable brand has something bigger than its products or services. You can see that while great founders are there. Only, over time some brands deviates from them as time goes by, and focusing on short-term profitability dominates. While you can: never forget why you started.
So What
For innovators, there is no point to replicate what winners did & to play their games to get beaten miserably. The point is to replicate the spirits they challenge the status quote & skills to change the world. As inspired by Anna Karenina principle:
Fortunate innovations are all alike; every unfortunate innovation is unfortunate in its own way.
Full Disclosure
The opinions stated here are my own, not those of my company. They are mostly extrapolations from public information. I don’t have insider knowledge of those companies, nor a whatever expert.
