… Long Live The Hammer!
“To be, or not to be, that is the question”. Indeed an question that one should keep asking. An answer to the Middle Class Innovation Dilemma can be either Open or Closed. But, there is no reason, that the universe does not allow both of them to be right. Please keep in mind without considering other dimensions, such as when and what, the question of which one better is only idealism. The law of the instrument has it — “if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail.” Unless, it’s Mjolnir. Oh, even Thor will need to learn new tricks.
The Smartphone Revolution
Let’s focus on the innovation, that tips a system to a paradigm shift, and the other to democratize it, in that order. In the recent smartphone revolution, there are iOS vs Android. They are almost the perfect archetypes of Closed vs Open.
The Beginning of Time
No one know what’s the next big thing for sure. Unless you have a crystal ball if it really works. Nevertheless from time to time, there maybe a visionary leader. Who pursues dreams persistently, rally a group of rebels and build a cult. Someday at a magical moment, the whole world finally see it. It was how Steve Jobs ignited the Smartphone resolution in 2007. It was not even the first time Apple did it. That’s the visionary leader who believes in something. Sometime, I wonder if Seven Jobs was from the future. It was a joke, but might be a good fiction.
1. The Messiah
There has to be a visionary leader consistently challenges the status of quo, is capable and dare to built from scratch. One preaches dreams to motivate teams. One trusts more on intuition & own superior technical insights rather than marketing research. Fords may not ever say:“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Still, the “Faster Horses” is alway a wrong ride if you set up to change the world.
I alway like to joke about “the One”. But, it is more Nurture than Nature. In the Valley, folks talk about the first principle thinking. Which is one of key spirit if to reinvent [X]. It is not for everyone and the risk is pretty hight. But, kids if that is your kind of dish, try more and deeper Physics and Philosophy. YouTube is on your side. If not, at least try to treat nerds nicer.
- Physics: the secret of nature
- Philosophy: the quest of questing/thinking
2. Invincible Speed
Jobs quoted Alan Kan on “People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware”. One of fundamental advantage of that is the Speed, and Apple does it well via Vertical Integration. Again, you don’t want to take that literally as doing them all by yourself. You only need to focus on the areas that give you wings. There are other essential tactics such as: a small motivated and elite team tirelessly overcome big and hard barriers pushing technology envelopes to build a brand new products that works. That is why it typically starts from a small startup on a direct business-to-consumer niche market. Apple is an outlier due to high entry barriers of Consumer Computing Device industry.
3. Timing Is A Bitch
Apple does have the great taste of Timing on technology. iPhone was not the first bring Music, Phone and Internet to a single devices either. But, there is no doubt, it converged a few key technologies, as follows just right to a brand new product with 10x UX(User eXperience) from other/existing alternatives. Unfortunately, this kind of alignment does not happen everyday.
- Commoditization of SoC, LCD display, Flash, Sensors & Battery. To be fair, Feature Phone paved the way.
- Commercialization of WiFi/mobile connectivity: lowering cost and ubiquitous of deployment.
- Capacitive Touchscreen matured: finally just works.
What’s Next
What can beat that, you ask. iPhone got started by great UX on key Utility Features: Music, Phone & Internet. End users started to see the need and definitely use it more than Twice-A-Day (the Toothbrush Test passed). But it was not yet Smart Smart. The real “Smart” is: users can continuously get new features/services from 3rd parties after the purchase, rather than under the mercy of the device maker. That is the true meaning of Generic Computing Devices. App Ecosystem is another interesting topic. Just remember a key concept, you need to have the Device Distribution to have one. Even if your distribution growth as crazy as Smartphone, the business will take about 2 years to be meaningful.
https://www.statista.com/chart/7800/apples-quarterly-iphone-sales/
https://www.statista.com/chart/9671/developer-earnings-apple-app-store/
internetinnovation.org/news/know-your-smartphone-history/
Disclaimer
The opinions stated here are my own, not those of my company. Furthermore, considering them are thought experiments because the reality is more complicated & has more factors to be considered.
