When Apple launches its 1st foldable iPhone in 2025, the foldable smartphone may actually go mainstream. By then, Apple will “reinvent“ the foldable. One the other hand, it may be just another rhyme of the history as a few innovators pave the way for Apple to “reinvent”. So, how & when the venture will unfold to become the next “one more thing”?
Technological innovation first
In 2019, Samsung unfolded Galaxy Fold and also marked the 0-to-1 of foldable. There was excitement but also many doubts, such useless kind of, too thick, too fragile & too pricy still. These are all reasonable concerns. Typically, most big innovation starts with similar shortcoming in the early stage. For example, there were similar comments on the big screen phone, aka phablet. Today, nobody talks about phablet anymore. Because, phones become bigger each year. And, a 6+inch screen is the default for premium phones now.
Foldable is becoming the next big thing starting from ultra premium phones. The question is when, not if. Many may still doubt it today. Now worries in the upcoming years, the trend will become obvious. This August, Samsung unfolded Galaxy Z Fold 4 and Z Flip 4. In China, Xiaomi MIX Fold 2 debuted too. Canalys estimates that, foldable smartphone may exceed 30M in 2024. By then, even if it’s not the mainstream mainstream yet, it will be a trend of the ultra premium section that Apple can ignore no longer.
Reinventing user value
It’s surely over simplify to say Apple is very good at “timing”. Nevertheless, Apple does have a few successful track records in “reinventing” a few thing. For example, iPhone did reinvent the smartphone in many ways. So, what’s the wining formula of Apple?
Value Innovation model in the Blue Ocean strategy may explain Apple’s trick to some degrees. For example, instead of rushing to ship foldable to iterate & improve the technologies, Apple way is to take the time to experiment to figure out what user pain it can kill. Furthermore as the technologies improve & more market feedback over time, it is easier to see what the right product-market fit may be. Furthermore, more iterations & time are the only way to polish the better user experience.
In my opinion, 2 predictions may unfold sooner or later.
- As early as 2025, Apple is likely reinventing foldable again. Similarly, Apple reinvented phablet in 2014 with Phone 6 Plus. Which is 3 years after Samsung shipped multiple generations of Galaxy Note since 2011.
- The 1st foldable iPhone may be better to flip vertically because the sales of flip foldable is 2–3x of the horizontal fold one. To my surprises, quite a few young friends of my love Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 3, just saying.
App ecosystem eventually comes
In 2019, we learned from top app developers about foldables. Many were excited. After all, most the smartphone industrial design has converged to the point of little differentiation. However, most of them could not prioritize for that, not even taking advantages with new features nor optimizing the user experience for foldable. Mainly because:
- The user base is too small, especially comparing the huge mobile market. Everyone is already stretching to complete better.
- As a new form factor, no one knows what kind of user experience or killer features are likely “Made to Stick”.
It’s a typical the chicken or the egg problem. Easy to say if you build, they will come. That is indeed oversimplified. But, if someone persists marching forward. The drum beats of commercialization may continue in the market, one baby step a time. There will be a higher possibility, they may eventually come.
But by 2025, if there are almost 50M new premium foldables shipped & the foldable iPhone is a thing, it may be the new land of opportunity for apps too 🤞.
Full Disclosure
The opinions stated here are my own, not those of my company. They are mostly extrapolations from public information. I don’t have insider knowledge of those companies, nor a whatever expert. Up to you to take it with a grain of salt or two 😉.
